Australia has grown its jobs availability to such an extent with a “little help” from immigration. Since 2013, it managed to create a million jobs, the ABC reported.
With the help of that report and another onePlease see the National Centre for Vocational Education Research below, one can attempt to make a forecast of jobs availability in Australia in the next seven years (2017-2024).
Snapshot of Australian Jobs Across Industries (1985-2017)
As you can see in the figure above, health is the biggest sector across the country. That much growth is driven by the increasing needs of aged care and also by natural demand created by population growth (no matter what your job is, when you need to see a dentist, you need to see a dentist). The National Disability Insurance Scheme alone is expected to create an extra 80,000 full-time jobs by 2020, according to Department of Social Security figures.
Construction is still a major playing field together with retail sector. There’s one construction-related job in every 10 jobs in Australia, thanks to the housing boom (again, due to population growth). Retail sector, in the meantime, got its boost from the economic growth Australia has enjoyed in the last two decades.
Meanwhile, after holding the top spot since 1985, the numbers of manufacturing jobs were on a steady decline after it peaked in 2000. In the last 5 years, the numbers continued to dwindle in an accelerating speed due to the shift explained somewhere below.
Rise of the Machines
Artificial intelligence poses a great challenge to certain jobs, particularly those that demand repetition and automation. And not just that, a smarter AI (the likes of Microsoft’s Cortana, Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa) can gradually replace the needs of customer service and yes, personal assistant. Skynet, anyone?
Part-time jobs are increasing as well. One out of three jobs are now only available part time said the same report. This is due to the casualisation of work force and a shift in lifestyle that demands a greater life-work balance. By that we mean, work from home or remote work ethos that otherwise unheard of ten years ago.
“Making things is officially over. [Australia] is now a country whose economy is about doing things and helping people,” argued Jason Murphy, an Australian economics commentator.
The reason for the decline of manufacturing jobs is
China the downward trend of Australia automotive manufacturing industry. It seems that Australia has begun its slow but steady shift, from goods economy to service economy. The shift is visible by looking at the numbers above. While manufacturing jobs are down, “professional” or service-based businesses numbers are up.
New Jobs from STEM sectors
STEMstands for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, by way of startup companies or education sectors, continues to generate new jobs. This pose a challenge on the regulation that has to keep up with market demands. There are at least 10 new jobs (with specific skills and definition) that didn’t exist 5 years ago, and there will be more in the future by looking at the pace we’re now technology-wise.
Aside from the machines, regulations also put a lot of pressure on certain jobs (while giving incentive to others). Given that a regulation lifetime span can only be as short as 3 months and between those short time, some occupations can be totally obsolete or absorbed to another occupation, it is an imposing factor to job availability.
Earth Without Art is Just Eh
Pardon the Banksy rhetoric. But it’s true. We can see that art/recreational sector also grow. Australian cities race to host the most cutting edge art festivals, some even last a few months long. Each of them, brings Australia closer to being a sort of art mecca, thus opening opportunities for artists and artisans from all over the world.
What’s Your Chance of Working in Australia?
So, given the above facts, what’s your chance of migrating to Australia through skilled stream?
Interestingly, National Centre for Vocational Education Research released a report last March (2018), forecasting jobs opening in Australia. The research finds that:
The total number of job openings over the forecast period 2017 to 2024 will be about 516 600 per year (4.1 million in total), with more than half of these resulting from replacement demand.
The results show employment continuing to shift towards higher-skill jobs in the labour market, with a slight acceleration in this trend with higher productivity growth.
The highest number of job openings, 121 700 per year (973 600 in total), will be in professional occupations. The second highest, 71 300 per year (570 600 in total), will be for managers. These figures reflect the demand in higher skill levels.
In some occupations, a high proportion of the job openings is due to replacement demand rather than employment growth. Very high replacement demand is seen in occupations with low entry requirements and low wages, which to date have typically attracted young people, who stay in the occupation for short periods. Examples due to replacement demand include hospitality workers, checkout operators and cashiers, and food preparation assistants (75.6%. 89.4% and 80.9%).
Replacement demand is high for occupations with relatively older workforces, a consequence of workers’ proximity to retirement. An example of high retirement-replacement demand includes farmers and farm managers, with 63.3% of the 80 900 job openings (10 100 per year).
Reasonably high proportions of job openings due to replacement demand are also found amongst technicians and trade workers (for example, 60.4% for bricklayers, carpenters and joiners and 61.1% for automotive electricians and mechanics). This can have training implications. As experienced workers leave, there are fewer available to supervise apprentices. Additionally, as apprenticeship training takes time, and completion rates can be low, sufficient recruitment is needed to avoid future shortages.
The analyses demonstrate the importance of considering replacement demand when assessing job openings for new entrants. Job openings can reflect future job opportunities; they can also provide a way to assess future training needs where training is required in an occupation.
Occupations with Most Jobs Opening in Australia (2017-2024) | The Most Likely Scenario
Baby Boomers Retiring
Looking at the above figure, the biggest factor that will drive jobs opening in Australia in 2017-2024 is none other than the retirement of baby boomer workforce.
We wrote somewhere that up to ninety percent of Australian business are small businesses kickstarted and owned by individual entrepreneurs rather than large business entities. Driven by technology, this value can find a new momentum, a part of which we have witnessed in the rise of startups. Deconstruction of values in lifestyle (represented by remote working) and even monetary (represented by blockchain technology) will lead to innovation, new businesses and by proxy, jobs.